Global initiative to size illegal gambling markets advances

“We are pleased with the recent meeting that has advanced our joint project with the School of Criminal Justice at the University of Lausanne (UNIL), to develop a Standardized Method for Estimating Illegal Gambling, to the next stage”, said WLA Executive Director Luca Esposito.

The meeting built on key insights from the initial workshop in Lausanne in 2024, including agreement to adopt the Macolin Convention’s definition of illicit gambling, which emphasizes territorial jurisdiction as a key criterion, and the need to have a standardized estimation methodology.

Participants from CK Consulting, American Gaming Association, Yield Sec, Singapore Pools, The Hong Kong Jockey Club, UNODC, INTERPOL and Council of Europe discussed the governance structure and stakeholders, different phases, and methodology.

Governance structure

The project’s governance structure is designed to ensure rigorous oversight and expert engagement throughout its duration. Led by Prof. Dr. Stefano Caneppele, Dr. Julien Chopin, and M. Lucas Tosi Rodriguez, the research team will work together with key stakeholders, who will play a crucial role in assessing and validating the methodology. The UNIL team commented:

“By integrating expert feedback at every stage, the project aims to develop a robust, scalable, and standardized model that addresses critical gaps in the estimation of illicit gambling markets.”

This will ultimately provide policymakers and researchers with a reliable tool for understanding and addressing this phenomenon.

Methodological approach

The project’s six phases cover:

• Phase 1 – identify relevant indicators through a comprehensive literature review and assess their reliability for estimating illicit gambling.
• Phase 2 – develop a standardized methodology, establishing a unified framework that can be consistently applied across different jurisdictions.
• Phase 3 – hold expert consultations to gather stakeholder feedback on the proposed approach, to refine the methodology.
• Phase 4 – research team to design an analytical model and prepare datasets, ensuring compatibility across different data sources and applying statistical techniques to fill in missing data.
• Phase 5 – validate the methodology, comparing the model’s estimations with existing approaches, and test its robustness through sensitivity analyses.
• Phase 6 – disseminate the results, including a final report summarizing the methodology, findings, challenges, and recommendations for future applications.

Timeframe

The project will run from February 2025 to March 2026, with each phase structured to ensure iterative validation and refinement. Phase-specific reports detailing findings, challenges, and methodological advancements, as well as a comprehensive final report presenting the standardized methodology will be produced.

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